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tick-stock-panel/backend/app/services/backtest.py
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kevin9327andClaude Opus 4.8 d92ef17851 fix(backtest): max_hold_days 强制退出信号真正生效 (#198)
问题: /api/backtest/run 设置 max_hold_days 时, 强制平仓完全不生效, 持仓不会
按最大持有天数退出, 导致交易记录、持仓周期和收益统计失真。

根因(services/backtest.py 的 max_hold 内联逻辑, 两处缺陷叠加):
1. `exits_idx.iloc[end_i][col] = True` 是链式索引: iloc[end_i] 先取出一行副本,
   再对副本赋值, 在 pandas Copy-on-Write 语义下写入不会落到原矩阵(pandas 3.x
   直接抛 ChainedAssignmentError)。强制退出单元格始终为 False。
2. `exits_idx = entries.copy()` 以入场矩阵起步, 使强制退出矩阵天然带上所有入场位;
   即便修好第 1 点, 也会在入场当日就强制平仓, 而非 max_hold_days 之后。

修复: 抽出纯函数 _build_max_hold_exits(entries, max_hold_days), 从全 False 起步,
用单步定位 iloc[row, col_loc] 写入入场后第 max_hold_days 个交易日的强制退出位;
run() 中改为与用户 exits 做 OR, 保留原有信号退出。抽出后该逻辑不依赖 vectorbt,
可独立回归(run() 整体仍需 vectorbt 可选依赖)。

边界: end_i 越界 clamp 到最后一根 K; 入场即最后一根 K 时 end_i==i 不产生退出。

验证: 新增 tests/backtest/test_max_hold_exits.py 覆盖强制退出落位、不误标入场位、
越界 clamp、末根不退出、多入场、多列独立 6 例, 修复后全过; 并以复刻旧内联逻辑的
脚本在 pandas 3.0.5 上确认修复前目标退出单元格恒为 False(ChainedAssignmentError)。
ruff 通过。

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-30 18:47:08 +09:00

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"""回测服务(§6.7)。
包 vectorbt — 全项目唯一一处出现 pandas。
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import logging
import uuid
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from datetime import date
from typing import Literal
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import polars as pl
from app.config import settings
from app.parquet import scan_enriched_parquet
from app.tickflow.repository import KlineRepository
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
# vectorbt 是 optional extras(见 pyproject.toml).未装时只有 backtest 不可用,其他功能正常.
_vbt = None
_vbt_unavailable_reason: str | None = None
class VectorbtUnavailable(RuntimeError):
"""vectorbt 未安装 — 提示用户 `uv sync --extra backtest`."""
def _get_vbt():
global _vbt, _vbt_unavailable_reason
if _vbt is not None:
return _vbt
if _vbt_unavailable_reason is not None:
raise VectorbtUnavailable(_vbt_unavailable_reason)
try:
import vectorbt as vbt
_vbt = vbt
return _vbt
except ImportError as e:
_vbt_unavailable_reason = (
"vectorbt 未安装 — 它是回测的可选依赖.macOS Intel 用户先 `brew install cmake` "
"然后 `uv sync --extra backtest`"
)
logger.warning("vectorbt unavailable: %s", e)
raise VectorbtUnavailable(_vbt_unavailable_reason) from e
def is_available() -> bool:
"""供 API 层快速检测."""
try:
_get_vbt()
return True
except VectorbtUnavailable:
return False
SignalKind = Literal[
"macd_golden", "macd_dead",
"ma_golden_5_20", "ma_dead_5_20",
"ma_golden_20_60",
"ma20_breakout", "ma20_breakdown",
"n_day_high", "n_day_low",
"boll_breakout_upper", "boll_breakdown_lower",
"volume_surge",
"rsi_oversold", "rsi_overbought",
"stop_loss", "trailing_stop", "max_hold",
]
@dataclass
class BacktestConfig:
symbols: list[str]
start: date
end: date
# 买入信号(任一触发即买)
entries: list[str] = field(default_factory=list)
# 卖出信号(任一触发即卖)
exits: list[str] = field(default_factory=list)
# 其他参数
stop_loss_pct: float | None = None # 例 -0.05 = -5%
max_hold_days: int | None = None
fees_pct: float = 0.0002 # 万二佣金
slippage_bps: float = 5 # 5 bps
# 撮合
matching: Literal["close_t", "open_t+1"] = "close_t"
rsi_oversold_threshold: float = 30
rsi_overbought_threshold: float = 70
asset_type: str = "stock"
@dataclass
class BacktestResult:
run_id: str
config: dict
stats: dict
equity_curve: list[dict] # [{date, value}]
trades: list[dict] # [{symbol, entry_date, exit_date, pnl_pct, ...}]
per_symbol_stats: list[dict] # 每只股票的统计
# enriched 表里的信号列名映射
_SIGNAL_COLS: dict[SignalKind, str] = {
"macd_golden": "signal_macd_golden",
"macd_dead": "signal_macd_dead",
"ma_golden_5_20": "signal_ma_golden_5_20",
"ma_dead_5_20": "signal_ma_dead_5_20",
"ma_golden_20_60": "signal_ma_golden_20_60",
"ma20_breakout": "signal_ma20_breakout",
"ma20_breakdown": "signal_ma20_breakdown",
"n_day_high": "signal_n_day_high",
"n_day_low": "signal_n_day_low",
"boll_breakout_upper": "signal_boll_breakout_upper",
"boll_breakdown_lower": "signal_boll_breakdown_lower",
"volume_surge": "signal_volume_surge",
}
def _build_max_hold_exits(entries: pd.DataFrame, max_hold_days: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""为每个入场信号在 max_hold_days 个交易日后生成一个强制退出信号。
返回与 entries 同形状的布尔矩阵, 仅在「入场位之后第 max_hold_days 个交易日」置
True(不含入场位本身), 供调用方与用户 exits 做 OR。
两处易错点(见 #198):
- 必须从全 False 起步。若用 `entries.copy()` 起步会把入场位当成退出位,
导致入场当日即被强制平仓。
- 用单步定位写入 `iloc[row, col_loc]`。链式 `iloc[row][col] = True` 写入的是
临时行副本, 在 pandas Copy-on-Write 语义下不会落到原矩阵(pandas 3.x 直接报错),
强制退出信号会静默丢失。
"""
out = pd.DataFrame(False, index=entries.index, columns=entries.columns)
n = len(entries)
for col in entries.columns:
col_loc = out.columns.get_loc(col)
entry_rows = np.where(entries[col].to_numpy())[0]
for i in entry_rows:
end_i = min(int(i) + max_hold_days, n - 1)
if end_i > i:
out.iloc[end_i, col_loc] = True
return out
class BacktestService:
def __init__(self, repo: KlineRepository) -> None:
self.repo = repo
def _load_panel(
self,
symbols: list[str],
start: date,
end: date,
asset_type: str = "stock",
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""加载 [date × symbol] 价格面板 — Polars scan_parquet + 即时计算指标。
**全项目唯一从 Polars 转 pandas 的边界**(§7.4 / ADR-19)。
asset_type='etf' 时读 ETF enriched。
"""
try:
from app.tickflow.repository import enriched_dirname
enriched_glob = str(self.repo.store.data_dir / enriched_dirname(asset_type) / "**" / "*.parquet")
df = (
scan_enriched_parquet(enriched_glob)
.filter(
(pl.col("symbol").is_in(symbols))
& (pl.col("date") >= start)
& (pl.col("date") <= end)
)
.sort(["date", "symbol"])
.collect()
)
except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
logger.warning("backtest load failed: %s", e)
return pd.DataFrame()
if df.is_empty():
return pd.DataFrame()
# 即时计算指标 + 信号
from app.indicators.pipeline import compute_all
df = compute_all(df)
# 选择需要的列
needed_cols = [
"date", "symbol", "open", "high", "low", "close", "volume",
"rsi_14", "signal_macd_golden", "signal_macd_dead",
"signal_ma_golden_5_20", "signal_ma_dead_5_20",
"signal_ma_golden_20_60",
"signal_ma20_breakout", "signal_ma20_breakdown",
"signal_n_day_high", "signal_n_day_low",
"signal_boll_breakout_upper", "signal_boll_breakdown_lower",
"signal_volume_surge",
]
existing = [c for c in needed_cols if c in df.columns]
df = df.select(existing)
# to_pandas 边界
return df.to_pandas(use_pyarrow_extension_array=False)
def _build_signal_matrix(
self,
panel: pd.DataFrame,
kinds: list[str],
config: BacktestConfig,
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""从面板构造 [date × symbol] 的布尔信号矩阵。"""
if not kinds or panel.empty:
return pd.DataFrame()
# pivot 成 [date × symbol] 形式
result = None
for kind in kinds:
mat = None
if kind in _SIGNAL_COLS:
col = _SIGNAL_COLS[kind]
mat = panel.pivot(index="date", columns="symbol", values=col).fillna(False).astype(bool)
elif kind == "rsi_oversold":
mat = (panel.pivot(index="date", columns="symbol", values="rsi_14")
< config.rsi_oversold_threshold)
elif kind == "rsi_overbought":
mat = (panel.pivot(index="date", columns="symbol", values="rsi_14")
> config.rsi_overbought_threshold)
# stop_loss / trailing / max_hold 通过 vectorbt 参数处理,不参与信号矩阵
if mat is not None:
result = mat if result is None else (result | mat)
return result if result is not None else pd.DataFrame()
def run(self, config: BacktestConfig) -> BacktestResult:
vbt = _get_vbt()
run_id = uuid.uuid4().hex[:10]
panel = self._load_panel(config.symbols, config.start, config.end, config.asset_type)
if panel.empty:
return BacktestResult(
run_id=run_id,
config=_config_to_dict(config),
stats={"error": "no data"},
equity_curve=[],
trades=[],
per_symbol_stats=[],
)
# 价格面板
close = panel.pivot(index="date", columns="symbol", values="close")
# 信号矩阵
entries = self._build_signal_matrix(panel, config.entries, config)
exits = self._build_signal_matrix(panel, config.exits, config)
# 对齐 index/columns
if not entries.empty:
entries = entries.reindex_like(close).fillna(False).astype(bool)
else:
entries = pd.DataFrame(False, index=close.index, columns=close.columns)
if not exits.empty:
exits = exits.reindex_like(close).fillna(False).astype(bool)
else:
exits = pd.DataFrame(False, index=close.index, columns=close.columns)
if not entries.any().any():
return BacktestResult(
run_id=run_id,
config=_config_to_dict(config),
stats={"error": "no buy signals"},
equity_curve=[],
trades=[],
per_symbol_stats=[],
)
# T+1 适配:vectorbt 默认信号当根 K 撮合
# close_t 撮合:维持默认
# open_t+1 撮合:shift 信号 1 根 + 用 open 作为价
if config.matching == "open_t+1":
entries = entries.shift(1).fillna(False).astype(bool)
exits = exits.shift(1).fillna(False).astype(bool)
price = panel.pivot(index="date", columns="symbol", values="open")
else:
price = close
# 跑回测
try:
pf_kwargs = dict(
close=close,
entries=entries,
exits=exits,
price=price,
fees=config.fees_pct,
slippage=config.slippage_bps / 10000.0,
freq="1D",
)
if config.stop_loss_pct is not None:
pf_kwargs["sl_stop"] = abs(config.stop_loss_pct)
if config.max_hold_days is not None:
# vectorbt 没有内置 max-hold;用时间退出近似:入场后第 max_hold_days
# 个交易日强制 exit, 与用户 exits 做 OR(保留原有信号退出)。
forced_exits = _build_max_hold_exits(entries, config.max_hold_days)
pf_kwargs["exits"] = (exits | forced_exits).astype(bool)
pf = vbt.Portfolio.from_signals(**pf_kwargs)
except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
logger.exception("vectorbt backtest failed")
return BacktestResult(
run_id=run_id,
config=_config_to_dict(config),
stats={"error": str(e)},
equity_curve=[],
trades=[],
per_symbol_stats=[],
)
# 提取结果
try:
stats_series = pf.stats(silence_warnings=True)
if isinstance(stats_series, pd.DataFrame):
# 多列时取 agg
stats_dict = stats_series.mean(numeric_only=True).to_dict()
else:
stats_dict = stats_series.to_dict()
except Exception: # noqa: BLE001
stats_dict = {}
# 净值曲线(组合平均)
equity = pf.value().mean(axis=1) if isinstance(pf.value(), pd.DataFrame) else pf.value()
equity_curve = [
{"date": str(idx.date() if hasattr(idx, "date") else idx), "value": float(v)}
for idx, v in equity.items() if pd.notna(v)
]
# 交易记录
try:
trades_df = pf.trades.records_readable
trades = trades_df.to_dict(orient="records") if not trades_df.empty else []
# 字段名美化
trades = [
{
"symbol": t.get("Column", t.get("Symbol", "")),
"entry_date": str(t.get("Entry Timestamp", t.get("Entry Date", ""))),
"exit_date": str(t.get("Exit Timestamp", t.get("Exit Date", ""))),
"entry_price": float(t.get("Avg Entry Price", t.get("Avg. Entry Price", 0))),
"exit_price": float(t.get("Avg Exit Price", t.get("Avg. Exit Price", 0))),
"pnl_pct": float(t.get("Return", t.get("PnL %", 0))),
"duration": str(t.get("Duration", "")),
}
for t in trades
]
except Exception: # noqa: BLE001
trades = []
# 每标的统计
per_symbol = []
try:
total_ret = pf.total_return()
if isinstance(total_ret, pd.Series):
for sym, ret in total_ret.items():
if pd.notna(ret):
per_symbol.append({"symbol": sym, "total_return": float(ret)})
except Exception: # noqa: BLE001
pass
result = BacktestResult(
run_id=run_id,
config=_config_to_dict(config),
stats={k: _json_safe(v) for k, v in stats_dict.items()},
equity_curve=equity_curve,
trades=trades,
per_symbol_stats=per_symbol,
)
# 落盘
self._persist(result)
return result
def _persist(self, result: BacktestResult) -> None:
out_dir = settings.data_dir / "backtest_results"
out_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
# 用 polars 写一份汇总
summary = pl.DataFrame({
"run_id": [result.run_id],
"stats_json": [str(result.stats)],
"n_trades": [len(result.trades)],
})
summary.write_parquet(out_dir / f"run_id={result.run_id}.parquet")
def get_result(self, run_id: str) -> BacktestResult | None:
# Phase 1:只保留近似落盘,完整结果保存在内存的近期 cache 中
# 简化:重新 run 比缓存复杂结果代价小,暂不实现 get_result
return None
def _config_to_dict(c: BacktestConfig) -> dict:
return {
"symbols": c.symbols,
"start": str(c.start),
"end": str(c.end),
"entries": c.entries,
"exits": c.exits,
"stop_loss_pct": c.stop_loss_pct,
"max_hold_days": c.max_hold_days,
"fees_pct": c.fees_pct,
"slippage_bps": c.slippage_bps,
"matching": c.matching,
}
def _json_safe(v):
if isinstance(v, (int, float, str, bool)) or v is None:
return v
if isinstance(v, (np.floating, np.integer)):
return float(v) if not np.isnan(float(v)) else None
if hasattr(v, "isoformat"):
return v.isoformat()
return str(v)