feat(walkforward): 真·walk-forward 优化后端 — 滚动窗口 IS 优化 + OOS 验证

PR2b 后端 (叠在 PR2a 优化器上):

app/backtest/walkforward.py:
- generate_folds: 滚动窗口切分 (训练固定长度 + 紧邻测试窗口 + step 前移),
  测试超出 end 即停; 放不下一折抛错; 非正窗口拒绝。
- aggregate_oos: 从各折 OOS 结果聚合 — 复利净值曲线 / IS-vs-OOS 退化
  (样本内目标均值 - 样本外目标均值, 正值=过拟合信号) / 一致性 (OOS 目标为正的折占比)。
- WalkForwardService.run: 每折在训练区间调 PR2a 优化器选最优参数, 再在测试区间
  用该参数做 OOS 回测。核心产出是纯 OOS 拼接 + 每折 IS/OOS 对比 — 单次样本内
  回测的过拟合一眼看穿。支持进度回调 (fold i/N) 与 cancel。

API app/api/backtest.py:
- GET /walkforward/stream (SSE, 复用 _BacktestJob + job_key 回吐) + POST
  /walkforward/cancel (按回吐 key 查表)。

测试 13 例: fold 切分 (滚动/边界/不足/非正) + OOS 聚合 (复利/退化/一致性/空) +
编排 (训练优化→测试OOS/退化上报/取消) + API (job_key 区分窗口/cancel按key)。
全量 169 测试通过。
This commit is contained in:
im47cn
2026-07-11 19:20:30 +08:00
parent 7e6ea3afcd
commit 586d9a4699
3 changed files with 580 additions and 0 deletions
+155
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@@ -719,3 +719,158 @@ async def optimize_cancel(request: Request):
return {"ok": True}
return {"ok": False, "message": "任务不存在或已完成"}
# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
# Walk-forward 优化 — 每折训练区间优化 + 测试区间 OOS 验证 (复用优化器 + job_key 回吐)
# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
def _make_wf_job_key(strategy_id, symbols, start, end, param_grid, objective, direction, windows, bt_sig) -> str:
raw = f"WF|{strategy_id}|{symbols}|{start}|{end}|{param_grid}|{objective}|{direction}|{windows}|{bt_sig}"
return hashlib.md5(raw.encode()).hexdigest()[:12]
@router.get("/walkforward/stream")
async def walkforward_stream(
request: Request,
strategy_id: str,
param_grid: str,
objective: str = "sortino",
direction: str | None = None,
train_days: int = 252,
test_days: int = 63,
step_days: int = 63,
max_workers: int = 4,
symbols: str | None = None,
start: str | None = None,
end: str | None = None,
matching: str = "open_t+1",
fees_pct: float = 0.0002,
commission_pct: float | None = None,
stamp_tax_pct: float | None = None,
slippage_bps: float = 5.0,
max_positions: int = 10,
max_exposure_pct: float = 1.0,
initial_capital: float = 1_000_000.0,
position_sizing: str = "equal",
mode: str = "position",
holding_days: int = 5,
):
"""SSE 流式 walk-forward: 每折训练区间网格优化 -> 测试区间 OOS 回测。
事件: job {key} / progress {type:walkforward_progress,done,total,fold} / done {result} / error {message}
"""
from app.backtest.optimizer import StrategyOptimizer
from app.backtest.strategy import StrategyBacktestService
from app.backtest.walkforward import WalkForwardConfig, WalkForwardService
direction = direction or None
engine = _get_engine(request)
strategy_engine = request.app.state.strategy_engine
svc = StrategyBacktestService(engine, strategy_engine)
optimizer = StrategyOptimizer(svc, strategy_engine)
end_date = date.fromisoformat(end) if end else date.today()
if start:
start_date = date.fromisoformat(start)
else:
earliest = request.app.state.repo.earliest_daily_date()
start_date = earliest or (end_date - timedelta(days=STRATEGY_DEFAULT_DAYS))
bt_kwargs = _opt_backtest_kwargs(
matching, fees_pct, commission_pct, stamp_tax_pct, slippage_bps,
max_positions, max_exposure_pct, initial_capital, position_sizing, mode, holding_days,
)
bt_sig = "|".join(f"{k}={bt_kwargs[k]}" for k in _OPT_BT_FIELDS)
windows = f"{train_days}/{test_days}/{step_days}"
job_key = _make_wf_job_key(strategy_id, symbols, start, end, param_grid, objective, direction, windows, bt_sig)
_cleanup_stale_jobs()
with _jobs_lock:
job = _running_jobs.get(job_key)
if job is None:
job = _BacktestJob(job_key)
_running_jobs[job_key] = job
is_new = True
else:
is_new = False
async def event_generator():
yield f"event: job\ndata: {json.dumps({'key': job_key}, ensure_ascii=False)}\n\n"
if is_new and not job.done:
try:
grid = json.loads(param_grid)
except (json.JSONDecodeError, TypeError):
grid = None
if not isinstance(grid, dict) or not grid:
job.error = "param_grid 必须是非空的参数网格对象"
job.done = True
job.finish_ts = time.time()
grid = None
if grid is not None:
wf_cfg = WalkForwardConfig(
strategy_id=strategy_id,
symbols=[s.strip() for s in symbols.split(",") if s.strip()] if symbols else None,
start=start_date,
end=end_date,
param_grid=grid,
objective=objective,
direction=direction,
train_days=int(train_days),
test_days=int(test_days),
step_days=int(step_days),
max_workers=int(max_workers),
backtest_kwargs=bt_kwargs,
)
def _run_wf():
try:
wf = WalkForwardService(optimizer, svc, strategy_engine)
job.result = wf.run(wf_cfg, lambda d: job.progress.append(d), job.cancel_event)
job.done = True
job.finish_ts = time.time()
except Exception as e:
job.error = str(e)
job.done = True
job.finish_ts = time.time()
threading.Thread(target=_run_wf, daemon=True).start()
cursor = 0
tick = 0
try:
while True:
if job.done:
if job.error:
yield f"event: error\ndata: {json.dumps({'message': job.error}, ensure_ascii=False)}\n\n"
elif job.cancel_event.is_set():
yield f"event: error\ndata: {json.dumps({'message': 'walk-forward 已取消'}, ensure_ascii=False)}\n\n"
elif job.result is not None:
yield f"event: done\ndata: {json.dumps(job.result, ensure_ascii=False, default=str)}\n\n"
return
tick += 1
if tick % 4 == 0 and await request.is_disconnected():
break
while cursor < len(job.progress):
msg = job.progress[cursor]
cursor += 1
yield f"event: progress\ndata: {json.dumps(msg, ensure_ascii=False, default=str)}\n\n"
await asyncio.sleep(0.5)
except asyncio.CancelledError:
raise
return StreamingResponse(event_generator(), media_type="text/event-stream")
@router.post("/walkforward/cancel")
async def walkforward_cancel(request: Request):
"""取消 walk-forward 任务 — 传 stream 首事件回吐的 job_key。"""
body = await request.json()
job_key = body.get("job_key", "")
job = _running_jobs.get(job_key)
if job and not job.done:
job.cancel_event.set()
return {"ok": True}
return {"ok": False, "message": "任务不存在或已完成"}